A grower survey points to a steady 2026 season for real Christmas trees, with supply, pricing and demand expected to remain broadly consistent.
The Real Christmas Tree Board, also known as the RCTB, expects the 2026 holiday season to bring ample supplies, stable wholesale prices and steady demand for farm-grown Christmas trees. The outlook is based on the board’s fifth annual survey of 47 wholesale growers, whose businesses represent about half to two-thirds of the US real Christmas tree market. The findings suggest that growers are preparing for continuity rather than a sharp shift in seasonal conditions.
Pricing is a central feature of the forecast. Ninety-one per cent of growers surveyed said they do not plan to raise wholesale prices, including respondents who may reduce them during the 2026 season, compared with 84 per cent who gave the same response for 2025. The board said growers are absorbing continued year-on-year increases in input costs rather than passing those rises on to retailers, although the final price paid by shoppers will continue to vary by retailer.
Supply expectations are similarly positive, with 85 per cent of surveyed growers rating the 2026 supply as strong or very strong. Real trees are available through choose-and-cut farms, seasonal lots, home-improvement stores, garden centres and other local retailers across the country. The survey also found that 79 per cent of growers expect to sell the same number of trees as last year or more, indicating that demand is expected to hold broadly steady.
The findings provide a relatively narrow but useful view of the Christmas tree market because they reflect direct responses from growers rather than retail pricing alone. The board’s separate consumer research found that 91 per cent of people who bought a real tree during the 2025 holiday season considered the price worthwhile, while 56 per cent said they paid less than expected. Together, the results point to a market where availability and perceived value are supporting an established seasonal purchase.
The Real Christmas Tree Board’s outlook presents stability as the defining condition for the coming season: growers anticipate sufficient inventory, limited wholesale price movement and resilient demand. Its grower survey was conducted in August 2026, while the consumer research covered 1,500 US adults surveyed between December 26, 2025 and January 7, 2026. For the industry, the implication is restrained but practical: the traditional real-tree market is entering the next holiday period with supply and pricing conditions that appear manageable.
